THE VOLCANIC PROCESSES THAT WILL RELEASE THE CASCADIA MEGA THRUST EARTHQUAKE HAVE BEEN UNDERWAY FOR ROUGHLY 8 MO
By Terry Rempel
Now that is a bold statement to make. Well if any lives are to be saved by forecasting the Cascadia within a relatively tight timeframe you had better be bold.
HOW THE CASCADIA IS RELEASED
In summary: The Cascadia is held in place only by friction. The location of the friction is known as the Cascadia subduction zone. This zone is under the Cascadia chain of volcanic mounts. Once the stress has built up over hundreds of years it seeks to be released. The most effective means of reducing friction along the plate boundary zone is to melt it away at multiple points. This is what is now occurring. I have compiled evidence to prove this. This evidence is verifiable.
THE CASCADIA MEGA-THRUST EARTHQUAKE CAN NOW BE FORECAST WITHIN A PERIOD OF MONTHS
I have discovered that there is an intrinsic relationship between the activity at the volcanic mounts of BC, Washington, Oregon and northern California, and the release of the Cascadia Mega Thrust Earthquakes, (CMTE). It is scientifically established that the CMTE is a subduction EQ. I discovered that precursor subduction specific volcanic activity precedes the CMTE. It is rare to have high 3 magnitude and 4 plus magnitude earthquakes at multiple Cascade volcanoes. This will be our warning of the impending CMTE. The speed of the process of the release of the CMTE is not known. Careful study over the next few months will provide more data that will assist in my understanding of the rate of development.
BEGINNING THE SEARCH FOR PRECURSOR ACTIVITY
The search for this precursor activity began about a year and a half ago. It began with the discovery of a very loose history of Mt. Tseax cone in British Columbia, erupting near or during the time of the 1700AD Cascadia Mega and a single mariners logbook entry that stated that either Mt. Rainier or Glacier peak was erupting during the 1700 Mega. These are clues to a connection between volcanic activity and the Cascadia Mega Quakes. That is not much to go on. I needed more substantial data. I searched for it and I found it.
THE SUMMARY OF ADDED DATA
The process is a building of pressure over hundreds of years is caused by the movement of North America westward. This is an established outcome of plate tectonics. This force overcomes the friction at the plate boundary zone and begins the process of subduction. This presents initially as subduction creep. Subduction creep causes subduction specific seismic tremor signatures to be recorded at the volcanic mounts above and along the contact boundary zone.
These signatures are now being recorded at 7 Cascadia Volcanic locations. 1) Crater lake, 2) Newberry, 3) a site 18 miles west of Mt. Jefferson, 4 ) Mount St. Helens, 5) Mount Rainier, 6) small at Glacier Peak and 7) at Mt. Baker. Additionally there has been an increase in tremors at Mt. Meager, in British Co;umbia, seamount activity at six seamounts from Mid Vancouver Island west and north Haida Gwaii. Since the 26th of Sept 2019 I have found a hot spot at Mt. Tseax cone, Mt. Edziza, Mt. Shasta, Mt. Lassen, Sutter Buttes, little known Mt. Troubridge in British Columbia and an un-named Vancouver island mountain with 2 very clear calderas, one on top and one on the flank. Using overlapping infrared satellite images I undertook a meticulous count of hot spots of West North America From Mid British Columbia to the north border of Mexico. This included all of coast and as far east as Alberta, Montana, west Wyoming west Colorado, Utah, and Arizona. A big area indeed. 130 hot spots were spread across that area. Six months ago you would be lucky to find 10 hot spots for the same area. Mount Shasta recently had a hot spot at it and has increased activity. More recently I counted 136 hot spots in BC alone. (Slash burns accounted for approx 25%). (BC had 17 hot spots before the 26th for comparative value). Why are hot spots of importance? Because the majority of them relate to magmatic rise that causes crustal heating. A smaller percentage relate to fires. Mammoth mountain has had swarms of EQs of late and that is also an increase. I have also noted an increase in the numbers of small earthquakes being reported at widespread volcanic locations across western North America.
THE DISCOVERY: INTERPRETING THE DATA
Immense pressure is required to create an immense earthquake such as the Cascadia Mega. There has been a demonstrable increase in symptoms of immense pressure going back about 6 months. It is the combined data that reveals the truth of this. The seismology also says that the process of subduction is underway. Thus the melting of the friction points that restrain the Cascadia Mega Thrust Earthquake is underway. The subduction specific signatures prove this. This melting extends laterally over time along the plate contact boundary further reducing friction. New sites of subduction melting occur due to pressure transfer that moves the more “stuck” areas. The reduction of friction increases the rate of subduction.
The increased subduction rate causes an increase in the frequency and the size of the melt uprise causing an increase in the frequency and size of the subduction specific volcanic tremors which graduate to become earthquakes. This is an exponential process. The speed of development will continue to accelerate as friction reduction continues and this reduction speeds the subduction process to the inevitable release of the Cascadia pressure. Thus we will see high 3 and 4 mag earthquakes at multiple Cascadia volcanic mounts as a relatively short term warning of the impending Cascadia Mega Thrust Earthquake. This is an early stage warning that I am providing.
A NEW SEISMIC SIGNATURE.
Since the initial write of this paper on Sept 2nd, 2019, a new seismic signature has appeared at multiple Oregon shoreline sites. A low frequency small”rumble”, and then after roughly 3 minutes long interval a much larger sharp signal. This occurred at multiple sites and at multiple times in Oregon. The PNSN BAND site is one of them. That site had 2 such signals on or about the 10th of Oct, 2019, (easy to find again). This is researchable data. I interpret this as being the outcome of crustal fracturing. My signal interpretation is a deep crustal “crunch” creates a small low frequency signal, and the pressure transmits through the crust leading to a later surface fracture. This occurs at shoreline sites for 2 reasons:
1)because that is where the subducting plate is unsupported by the overlying plate, and
2) That is where the plate must bend to subduct, very near to the shoreline.
This dual seismic signature is not contained in any seismology instructional material that I have read. It may be a new discovery. On the 31st of Oct and 1st of November, I undertook a review of three Oregon shoreline sites. Brookings Airport, Bandon and Reedsport. The activity level is about doubled from a year ago an average. Also i noted low frequency deep signals both before and after sharp surface signals and complex signals. The ones I note were not seen a year previous. I now have no doubt that these are crustal fracture signals related to subduction processes.
UPDATE:
On the 23rd of Oct, 2019 there were 317 hot spots west Canada and USA, a 3000 ft plume from the summit of Mt. Adams and a smaller one from Mt. St Helens lasting 2 days. Additional sites noted with magmatic infill signals:
Garrison Hill
Mt Adams,
Tom, Dick and Harry Mtn.
Mt. Hood.
That is 4 more added to the original.
- New, Mt Mitchell signals increasing. On the 24th of October a cluster of 30 new hot spots appeared in Idaho north of the Salmon River Mountains, (western edge of Yellowstone).
There were faint hot spots at Mammoth, Mt. Shasta and Mt. St Helens as well on the 23rd.
On the 26th, a new hot spot at Mt. Garibaldi. Other hot spots were located at very many sites with ash cone features and calderas.
October 28th and 29th new data. 29th, major venting plume from Mt. St Helens. Also new, plume bursts from the area of the Garlock fault. 28th, Mt. Mitchell signals increasing significantly. Then on October 28th, hot spot Mt. Hood.
October29th, Mt. Tseax was encircled by hot spots at the base in the snow, with a resultant mile high or so steam plume. Mt. Tseax erupted very near the time of the 1700 Cascadia Mega based on the most current scientific investigation results, so this is significant.
This describes the rate of development of the Cascadia release process. The area of plate contact boundary melt is expanding as I stated it would. Part of this process is plate stress transfer. Movement in one area increases the stress on the remaining ”stuck” areas and then the next area with the highest stress/ lowest friction ratio gives way and it also begins to move. More melt sites equals further friction reduction. This accelerates the rate of the process of release.
Based on this I have reduced my expectation of Cascadia Mega release to between 3 and 6 months, a year at the latest. This is developing faster than I expected. This may be shortened yet further based on new data.
VOLCANIC ERUPTION POTENTIALS
Current science seems to have failed to link subduction processes to the Cascadia Mega Quakes. Yet the contact boundary zone of the Cascadia is directly under the Cascadia range of volcanoes. And it is established that subduction processes created those volcanoes. We already have evidence of a widespread Cascades volcanic activity increase from,
1.) Subduction specific tremors and small earthquakes.
2.) A massive hot spot increase and
3.) plumes from volcanoes. What will happen when massive inland areas of west North
America drop by as much as 6 ft? This will cause a temporary additional increase in
pressure on the magma under the crust.
A magmatic tsunami of pressure is how i see it. I believe we will see magma erupt through the weak points as a result. Eruptions.
That is based on logic and fits with the vague historical accounts. Which Volcanoes are likely? Based on activity level increases the most likely are Mt. Tseax in BC, Mt. Rainier, Mt. St Helens and /or Mt. Adams in Washington. Other potentials include other sites with increased activity such as Newberry Craters, Crater Lake, and Mt. Shasta. Some of the Buttes that have had significant hot spots such as Sutter Buttes are also likely to have lava expulsions, flow outs.
UPDATE, HOT SPOTS
UPDATE, HOT SPOTS for the 2nd of Nov 2019: Using 25 Volcano discovery satellite images daylight on October 2nd, I found the following hotspots at volcanic mounts. A cluster all around the base of Mt. Tseax, (BC), 1 at Mt. Rainier, 1 at Mt. St Helens, one at Sand Mountain, 3 at Mt. Hood, 2 at South Sister, 1 at Crater lake, 8 at Newberry craters, 3 at Mt. Shasta, 6 at Mammoth Mountain, 8 at Mt. Lassen, 14 at Sutter Buttes, 1 at Mono Lake, 14 at Craters of the Moon and 6 at Santa Clara. (And a small Plume remains at Mt. Adams). You should note that this is yet another increase, an increase in hot spots at known Volcanic locations. Many of them are faint and only seen on either the closest image or on October 2nd, closest daylight image. But they are there, and not miles away, RIGHT there, on the summit, on the base or on the flank. There are others at lesser known volcanic locations as well, lots of them. 15 well known volcanic locations with hot spots is a new high total.
HOW BIG?
The latest science from sediment sampling says that when the Cascadia goes, it usually goes for the full length, as it did in 1700. And scientific research estimates the 1700 EQ at a massive 9.3 magnitude. Well immense pressure is required to create that size of an EQ. If the Explorer Plate and the Gorda Escarpment, (broken off sections of the Juan de Fuca plate), are included in the length, then about 950 miles of plate subducts all at once. Since we are overdue compared to the average by 76 years it may be higher than a 9.3. Well that’s a 9.3 plus affecting up to 950 miles with a high level of probability.
NEW DATA UPDATE
NEW DATA UPDATE, Nov 6, 2019. Steve Quayle and i had a back and forth e-mail info share. The responses came through Steve from someone who is quite obviously a former or current high level insider in the industry. I received the following information which I subsequently confirmed:
1.) 200 TRILLION TONS of molten liquid carbon has been discovered in western USA under
the crust. Well imaged seismically. I confirmed this through a 2017 ScienceAlert.com
article. That article stated 100 trillion tons, not 200 trillion. I suspect the insider is more
accurate.
2.) New fault complex extends offshore to Mexico from the San Andreas complex which
includes many lesser known faults. Some of these offshore faults show escarpment
uplift ridges. Historically the Seattle escarpment fault has displaced upwards by 200 ft
in a single event, geologists proven.
3.) I was also told that the Pacific and Juan de Fuca plates show a twisting deformation,
(force of torsion being applied). I have not found data supporting this. I did however find
an abstract that shows that E/W force now dominates the California area.
4.) It was described that there is a wedging force on the Pacific plate caused by the
Philippine plate. I can confirm from research only that the Philippine plate is wedge
shaped and this leads to a logical conclusion that it could be creating wedging effect on
the Pacific Plate. With my timber falling background I well know how significant the
force is that is created by use of a simple little wedge. I have overcome 1000s of pounds
of tree weight back-lean with a wedge and a 2 lb axe.
5.) The “Doc” who replied stated that GPS proves my presentation of the North American
Continent moving west. Well there is ample evidence that this is a correct statement. 1)
The Atlantic is growing and the Pacific shrinking as proven by GPS. 2) There are studies
that confirm an approximately 2 cm per year movement of North America west, 3) the
spreading of the mid-Atlantic ridge is a proven phenomenon, and 4) The Caribbean plate
and Sandwich Island plate flow out areas as seen on Google earth prove this to be fact.
APPLYING THE NEW DATA
1.) VOLCANOES: With 15 on land volcanoes and 7 seamount being increasingly active, we
now add the effect of molten carbonate. This more fluid and more reactive component
will increase the eruption levels of the volcanic chain from Mexico to at least mid BC.
More eruptions with higher volumes than my initial research indicated. The potential of
a year long Volcanic winter looms for all of the Northern Hemisphere.
2.) CASCADIA MEGA: Due to tortional forces plus being overdue the Cascadia may be larger
than a 9.5 magnitude. 10.5 is not unrealistic. This would increase the related tsunami
height.
3.) CASCADIA MEGA TSUNAMI: By comparing historical large subduction earthquakes and
related tsunamis I have developed a rough means of relating magnitudes to expected
wave heights. After 8.0 magnitude you use a factor of 1.5 for each full magnitude
increase. Thus the 82 ft tsunami from the Chile 9.4-9.6 translates to a 123 ft tsunami if
the Cascadia Earthquake is a 10.5M quake.
This isn’t exact, just close. The data set is small and there are variables that affect the amount of seafloor deformation and undersea landslides also add additional impact. Localized variables could cause the height to reach 150 ft in my estimation.
4.) OTHER EARTHQUAKES: The immense pressures involved could trigger a California event
before, after or during the Cascadia mega. The Cascadia could also be a trigger for this
due to immense stress transfer. The same applies to other southern state areas. I
remind you of the large Tennessee Earthquake of Dec 25th 1699. That was 1 month
before the 1700AD Cascadia megaquake on Jan 26th.
HOW CAN I HAVE DISCOVERED THE MEANS OF RELEASE OF THE CASCADIA MEGA THRUST EARTHQUAKE?
This is a fair question. My ability to speed read with good comprehension has greatly assisted my ability to learn quickly. I have committed thousands of hours in research of faults, geology, volcanism, and plate tectonics. I track 22 NRCAN seismograms and 68 PNSN seismograms that are available for public viewing, 90 in total. That covers the Yukon, NWT, BC, Washington and Oregon.
I also look into California seismogram sites from time to time. I use Volcano Discovery infrared satellite imaging sites to track hot spots. I track 12 sites which covers all of the west side of N America from south Alaska and the Yukon and through the USA to the Mexico border and as far east as Alberta, Montana, eastern Colorado and Arizona.
I recently added 13 more sites. Adding to this is the perspective gained by watching the occurrence of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions on a world-wide basis for over 18 months. This combined approach is quite unusual. I use more tools to develop more data than most. How much more data? Given the area and the fields in combination, about 30 times more data is my estimate. More data provides a foundation for better complex problem solving. I am not an expert in any field. I am a generalist that looks at a combination of data sets that few combine. It is this approach that allows for the development of understanding that is not widely possessed.
WHAT FORCE BUILDS THE PRESSURE THAT CAUSES THE CASCADIA MEGA THRUST EARTHQUAKE?
It must be a very large force to cause a very large EQ. It is accepted science that the Atlantic ocean is growing by 2-3 centimeters per year while the Pacific ocean is shrinking. The whole continent of North America is moving to the west as part of this process of plate tectonics. The evidence of this is the spreading of the Mid Atlantic ridge and the massive flow out formation in the Caribbean. That formation is easily seen in the Caribbean on Google earth. The flow out of that plate is roughly 2000 miles.
This process of westward movement of North America is accepted in science as having gone on for hundreds of millions of years. It is the westward movement of the continent of North America that causes the Cascadia pressure build up.
CASCADIA MEGA OUTCOMES:
If I told you it all you would be overwhelmed, most of you. So I have not gone there. Scaring people badly is not the intent of this paper. Preparation is my goal. Three aspects I will explain, just so you get an idea.
- ) Current scientific papers say that everything west of I-5 will be pretty much wiped
out. Consider the number of nuclear power plants down the west coast of the US
and the Hanford nuclear waste disposal site. How much of the Pacific Ocean will be
contaminated and for how long?
2.) Given the national debt of the US, how can the U.S. absorb trillions in infrastructure
loss as well. It will cripple the economy. Doing so will cause chaos. Chaos will lead to
martial law.
3.) Global impacts: The US military will be needed at home. Remove US military influence
and who moves in war? China? Russia? Arab Countries? Advantage of the void of
U.S. influence will be taken. Voids are always filled. That is a lesson of history.
These three are realistic outcomes that are part of the Cascadia Mega. Outcomes that
follow a great tragedy to come.
WHY PRESENT THIS?
This allows my family and friends to prepare, as well as myself of course. This also is an act done for the good of the public more widely. I seek no acclaim, I seek no position. I seek to save those lives that I can. My findings and conclusions will be greatly challenged by the professionals and potentially even by governments.
Fear mongering claims will be made against me. My credibility will be attacked. Few will look at the solid scientific foundation for what I have presented. Few will consider even the basic logic of friction reduction being a key to the CMTE release. That is how the world is. Attack the messenger, and despise the logic and the science behind it. So be it, it is done. For the good of humanity. I also thank Steve Quayle and his “Doc” associate for notifying me of additional and very important information.
November 9, 2019
Tremor storms Vancouver island and South through Washington and Oregon. Magnitude 3’s at Mt. Redoubt, Mt. Tseax, Glacier peak plus Mt. Popocatpytl activity up. THIS IS ENOUGH ACTIVITY TO TRIGGER A SHORT-TERM WARNING FOR RELEASE OF THE CASCADIA MEGA WITHIN THE NEXT MONTH. This process keeps exceeding my expectations for speed of development! The next warning will be an immediate warning. Watch for 5 mag EQs at two Cascadia volcanic mounts, or one plus an eruption at any Volcanoes from Mexico to Alaska.
AN IMMEDIATE WARNING WILL MEAN WITHIN A WEEK. This is an accelerating process that I can only track via new data. There is no historical comparison to follow. I change the timeframe to fit the Data. That is the best I can do. I hope my warnings will save lives.